The AUD/USD currency pair is one of the most popular forex pairs in the world, and it’s a great way to trade the Aussie dollar.
The AUD/USD exchange rate is often tied to commodity prices and market risk sentiment. Understanding these correlations can improve your AUD/USD trading.
Commodity Prices
Australia’s economy is heavily based on the export of raw materials, including coal and iron ore. This means that the Australian dollar is very closely linked to commodity prices.
In the past, commodities have pushed the Australian dollar up in cycles when demand was strong, and later down as demand weakened.
The currency also has a close correlation with China’s sentiment, which is important for Australia as a major exporter of resources to the world’s second largest economy.
The AUDUSD pair is volatile and offers traders a variety of trading opportunities. It is also one of the most liquid currencies, making it an excellent addition to any portfolio.
Australia’s Economy
Australia is a relatively large economy and has experienced high growth rates. It has a mixed economic system that blends private freedom with central ized economic planning and government regulation.
Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on resource exports, such as coal and iron ore. These are among the world’s most accessible natural resources and account for a large share of Australia’s export earnings.
Commodity prices have a significant effect on the terms of trade. This means that when commodities increase in price, Australia’s exports will also tend to increase in value.
Similarly, when Australia’s interest rate increases, its currency will tend to appreciate. This is because higher Australian dollars are required to purchase the same amount of commodity exports. This can result in an appreciation of the AUD, as well as increased demand for the currency by foreign investors.
Australia’s National Statistical Agency (ABS)
The Australian dollar (AUD) is the fifth most traded currency in the world. This is due to the country’s geology and geographic location, which makes it ideal for trading with Asian nations that have a thirst for commodities.
The AUDUSD is also heavily influenced by Australia’s National Statistical Agency, which produces and publishes important economic and social data that can trigger major price movements in the forex pair. This includes Trade Balance, Labour market, GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The percentage of exports and imports invoiced in the AUD has been moving inversely to the percentage invoiced in the USD over the past few years, suggesting a strong Aussie economy. A large US stimulus package will benefit Australia’s economy by increasing commodity prices and exports.
China’s Expansion Headlines
The Chinese are always at the top of the class when it comes to growth and innovation. However, their high-growth model based on investment, low-cost manufacturing and exports has its limitations. These include a tepid productivity boost, a shrinking working age population and rising social and environmental costs. A shift to a more balanced and sustainable growth path is the order of the day.
In this context, a high-speed data feed from the Chinese is all but essential. These include China’s GDP, the annual report on the nation’s economy and a host of policy pronouncements from the central bank. These will be important in determining Australia’s place on the global economic stage. In particular, the AUD will be affected by hawkish slants on interest rates from the RBA.
RBA Meetings
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday and the main issue on the agenda will be interest rates. In the past eight meetings, the RBA has hiked interest rates by a cumulative 300 basis points as it worked to slow economic growth and bring inflation back down towards the 2-3 per cent target band.
The RBA is expected to continue on its path of rate hikes. However, markets are split on whether it will go ahead with another 25-basis-point hike or even pause.